GABRIELA TEIXEIRA argues that Joe Biden will have an attitude towards Xi Jinping that is comparatively different from Trump's attitude. The new president should base his line of action on cooperation with China in solving common problems.
The 46th US President Joe Biden took office last January 20, 2021, but speculation regarding his tenure is increasing with every step he takes. Will he be the same as Trump? Will he be more diplomatic? Will he be the same as Obama? Or will it just be Biden? In this oscillation of hypotheses, one doubt remains: what will be the future relationship between US President Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, head of state of the People's Republic of China?We can be sure of one thing: China and the United States of America (hereafter the US) will remain rivals, but what changes now is the attitude of the new president. Biden, unlike Trump, wants to play by the rules of the international game and avoid any kind of conflict. Although he considers that China is and will continue to be the USA's main international adversary, Biden says that this rivalry will only result in "extreme competition" and that he will always follow a diplomatic approach. Unlike his predecessor's administration, Biden's administration is predisposed to cooperate directly with Xi Jinping on issues such as climate change and public health.
Regarding the trade war between these two powers - started by Trump in 2017 - the focus of Biden's administration should be on pressuring the Chinese government to open its economy so as not to exercise so much state control in it. This may be possible if the three big developed democracies (the US, Japan, and the European Union) join forces by stabilizing their alliance, and show a united front towards China, as the combined wealth of this international triangle exceeds Chinese wealth and power.
Jen Psakim, White House spokesperson, said that "The President is committed to stopping China's economic abuses", meaning that once again Biden is taking a step forward in international diplomacy, but how far is he willing to go to stop these abuses? We will certainly know a concrete answer soon, but for now, we can only conclude that Biden is willing to fight not only for American welfare but also for Chinese welfare (or at least for Chinese economic welfare that influences American economic welfare).
Another major conflict left by Trump to Biden is the digital war between the US and China, also started in the year 2017, which involves US sanctions against Chinese tech companies, such as SMIX and Xiaomi. Although this war does not yet have an outcome, Biden can reach a consensus and join forces with China by finding a common ground that both powers want to resolve: the regulation of Big Tech. That is, the joining of forces of these two technological superpowers with the creation of international regulation on the digital economy can be the starting point of understanding between these two countries, leading Biden to suspend all the policies that Trump has applied to Chinese technology.
Biden's focus in his relationship with Xi Jinping should be on "managed strategic competition" so that he does not make the same mistakes as his predecessor and enter into open conflict with the Chinese government. This type of competition translates into "the establishment of certain rigid limits on the security policies and conduct of each country, allowing for full and open competition in the diplomatic, economic and ideological fields". The secret will be a multilateral approach to make it clear to the Chinese government that Washington is not 'alone' on the international scene, and that Biden increasingly has the support of developed powers (such as the European Union, Australia, and Japan), which together are able to curb the ambitions of the Chinese government and restore international order, whether through common regulatory policies or through bilateral agreements on international export/import subsidies. Thus, if Xi Jinping is willing for this international cooperation, one of the consequences may result in the openness of the remaining countries in making new agreements with Beijing to lower Chinese customs duties, allowing a greater circulation of Chinese goods and services in the Western world.
In this context of succession, the relationship between the US and China can be seen in the light of two theories:
• If we look at Trump's mandate, the relationship he established with Xi Jinping displays characteristics of Realist Theory (Walt, 1998, p.31). Trump presented clear evidence of skepticism when it came to international cooperation, always departing for conflict (not necessarily armed war) rather than pondering a written agreement. These actions demonstrate a competitive attitude that has added to the tension between the two powers.
• However, everything changes with Biden. This President is the antithesis of the previous one and, in only a few days in office, his intentions with China are already visible -presenting clear signs of the Liberal Theory. Looking at a third and more recent line of thought of this theory, international cooperation is the key to peace between the great powers and only international organizations can control these behavioral flows, preventing: the overlapping power of one state over the others, and instability in the international order (Walt, 1998, p.32). Biden has all the resources to put the USA back in international institutions, which once the outgoing president withdrew the country, taking a line of international cooperation, thus putting his country back on the axes of diplomacy.
We can conclude that Biden's work regarding his relationship with Xi Jinping will follow a long-term international strategy in the meticulous choice of the battles he decides to fight and those he leaves in abeyance. The starting point should be to find issues on which these two powers can unite (such as cooperation in the field of public health) and leave the differences that once separated them to the background. Before the rules of international order are established, it is crucial to find a balance of power between China and the US. We know that both countries may never have the best of relations, but the climate of open warfare is avoidable. Of one thing the Chinese government can rest assured: Biden will expose his political position through official statements and not through tweets.
Additional references:
Walt, Stephen M. (1998). International Relations: One World, Many Theories. Foreign Policy, No. 110, Special Edition: Frontiers of Knowledge.
Cover image source: Gabriel Campanario / The Seattle Times
Comentários
Enviar um comentário